The Road To The 2024 College Basketball Championship

The 2024 college basketball season has gone through many twists and turns to get us where we are today, just days before the tournament is set to start.

As the brackets were being released, the team at Circa Sports briefly took down the futures markets to analyze how the bracket would shake out. When the odds came back online, this is what they looked like.

To properly look ahead, it’s always good to take a look back. Days after the season ended last year, Circa Sports put out odds on next year’s champion. Here were the favorites at that point.

• UConn +1400
• Duke +1400
• Kentucky +1700
• Kansas +1700
• Marquette +1800
• Houston +2000
• Arizona +2200
• Arkansas +2200
• Purdue +2600
• UCLA +2700
• Michigan State +2800

As you can see, UConn was a steady favorite throughout the season. Houston has always been near the top, and Purdue was also in the top 10 of most likely teams to win it all. Some? Not so much. Arkansas at +2200 and UCLA at +2700 proved to be wildly off the mark.

One of the big stories of the year is the way three teams separated themselves from the pack: UConn, Houston and Purdue. While they all started in the top 10 in odds, they took different paths to get to this point. Here was the path for defending champion UConn, who were the favorites to repeat when the odds initially went up on April 10, 2023.

• 4/10/23 – +1400
• 6/12 +2000
• 11/7 +2300
• 11/9 +2500
• 11/10 +2000
• 11/20 +1200
• 11/21 +1500
• 12/6 +1300
• 12/16 +1100
• 1/10 +1200
• 1/28 +800
• 1/30 +850
• 2/13 +750
• 2/17 +650
• 2/18 +550
• 2/19 +500
• 3/15 +440
• 3/17 +400

There were several big jumps for UConn throughout the season. On November 20, they beat Texas in New York City, which dropped their odds from +2000 to +1200. On January 28, following wins over Creighton, Villanova and Xavier, they odds fell to +800, and their odds kept chopping down to the +400 it is now.

On to another favorite, Houston.

• 4/10/23 – +2000
• 7/28 +2700
• 9/18 +3000
• 10/24 +2500
• 11/2 +1900
• 11/20 +1400
• 12/4 +1700
• 12/10 +1300
• 12/17 +1400
• 1/1 +800
• 1/10 +1000
• 1/30 +900
• 2/24 +800
• 2/29 +700
• 3/10 +600

While considered a favorite at the beginning of the season, there was some fluctuation during the offseason where bettors could have had Houston as high as +3000. They went on a run early though, dropping down to +1400 after a win over Dayton in November. While their odds would slowly move back up, they remained one of the favorites throughout the season, with odds never going higher than +1000 after the New Year. Houston sits as the second-favorite at +600 now.

This brings us to another team with some wild movement. Illinois had a roller-coaster season, first being placed at +7500 to win the title.

• 4/10/23 – +7500
• 7/28 +8400
• 11/7 +7400
• 11/15 +8800
• 11/21 +10000
• 12/4 +7500
• 12/6 +5500
• 12/13 +6500
• 1/10 +8000
• 1/16 +9000
• 1/19 +4000
• 1/23 +4500
• 1/26 +3500
• 1/28 +4000
• 1/31 +3000
• 2/6 +2800
• 2/13 +3500
• 2/14 +2300
• 2/22 +2700
• 3/6 +3000

Illinois has had as much line movement as anyone, largely due to player uncertainty. Midway through the season, Terrence Shannon Jr was suspended, and it was expected that the suspension would be for the entire season. This raised their odds from +6500 and eventually as high as +9000 after a couple of conference losses. When he was reinstated to the team, that number cut all the way down to +4000. As the team continued to perform in conference play, that number slowly dropped, getting down to +2300 at one point. As we enter the tournament, they are sitting at +2700, which is 11th best in the country.

For those looking to still bet on Illinois while in the state, bets can be placed over-the-counter at the Circa Sportsbook at American Place Casino. The Circa Sports team will be all around the Illinois area during the tournament. You can find all the Circa Sports parties here

Iowa State is another team that started off nowhere near the title picture, faded out during the season, and is now among the favorites.

• 4/10/23 – +7500
• 9/18 +8000
• 11/7 +8400
• 11/15 +10000
• 11/29 +12500
• 12/4 +14000
• 12/7 +7500
• 12/13 +8500
• 12/30 +6500
• 1/2 +7000
• 1/9 +4000
• 1/10 +3000
• 1/23 +3500
• 2/14 +3000
• 2/19 +2500
• 2/20 +2300
• 3/10 +2600

Iowa State did not impress early, including losses to Virginia Tech and Texas A&M which saw their price drift all the way out to +14000 in December. A win over rival Iowa cut that number in half, and slowly but surely the price dropped. After beating Houston on January 9, the number dropped down to +3000, and largely continued to move down from there. After winning the Big 12 tournament, they sit at +1900, which is 8th best in the country.

In addition to the normal futures, Circa Sports provides bets on the last four teams remaining and much more!

Of course, if you’re looking for a place to watch the tournament, there’s no better place than Circa Resort and Casino. From the sportsbook, to Stadium Swim, private man caves and more! There are plenty of options for any group size. Find out more info and make reservations today!