Betting Advice From The Circa Football Season Preview
At Circa’s Ultimate Contest Weekend, VP of Operations Mike Palm brought together a panel of football and gambling experts to help preview the upcoming season. They discussed strategies for both contests and gambling in general, and also got their opinions on aspects of the season.
The panelists were:
Wes Reynolds: VSiN Host and prior contest winner in Vegas
Eric Eager: VP at SumerSports. Previously was at Pro Football Focus
Mike Somich: VSiN Host
Dylan Sullivan: Risk manager at Circa Sports
For those interested, you can watch the entire panel here. Here are some of the highlights from the panel.
Survivor Strategy
Early on in the panel, the group all gave out pieces of advice for people entering Circa Survivor. Wes Reynolds discussed avoiding divisional games when at all possible, citing the familiarity between the teams can breed some chaos. Mike Somich also talked about avoiding variance, avoiding games with potential weather issues, rookie quarterbacks and rookie coaches. He advised sticking to known quantities. Meanwhile, Dylan Sullivan looked at late-season strategy, talking about going against the grain, especially when the field narrows. If there’s a chance to capitalize on many people taking the same game, sometimes you have to take it. Eric Eager also suggested differentiation. He advised making a line on every game, and using that to zig where everyone else zags.
Teams That Are Mispriced
The panel also looked at the NFL futures markets. They talked about teams they felt were mispriced, either being underrated or overrated.
Wes: Tennessee Titans were underpriced to win the AFC South, pointing out that they started well before injuries last year and that Jacksonville might be too heavy a favorite.
Eric Eager: Green Bay is being disrespected by the market and thinks Jordan Love could do what the offense is designed to do better than Aaron Rodgers did last year.
Mike: Seahawks could have a great path to win the NFC South despite the 49ers being the favorites. He doesn’t believe in Brock Purdy
Dylan: The Bears are being overrated, pointing to offensive line issues.
Who Can Dethrone The Chiefs?
The panel was asked about the AFC West and if any team could dethrone the Chiefs.
Wes: Chargers. He thinks Herbert is an elite quarterback that has been misused by the previous coaching staffs. “They treated Herbert like a Toyota Camry. He’s a Ferrari.”
Mike: Broncos. The change at head coach could make a huge difference. He thought Sean Payton could be a guy who added several wins to a team on his own, especially when you consider how poor the coaching was last year with Nathaniel Hackett.
QBs Who Could Take A Leap
The panel was asked about “unknown” quarterbacks who could surprise the public by playing at an MVP level this year. There was some discussion about what unknown really meant, and they agreed on players in their first two years of starting.
Eric: Anthony Richardson.
Dylan: Anthony Richardson
Wes: Kenny Pickett
Mike: Jordan Love
Will Aaron Rodgers And the Jets Make the Playoffs?
Eric: There are a lot of parallels to the 2020 Bucs, from roster construction, to the schedule and more. Aaron Rodgers has been very dangerous as an underdog in his career, and that’s where he’ll be here.
Mike: They’ll make the playoffs, but one bet he loves is the Jets to lose wild card weekend.
Wes: No to making the playoffs. The O-line could have some major issues. This feels like an 8 or 9 win team, and that might not be good enough to make the playoffs.
Dylan: Thinks they’ll make the playoffs.
Best Betting Tips For the Season
Mike: Poor bankroll management is the biggest mistake a bettor can make. Know what your bankroll is, and bet accordingly
Eric: Set incremental goals for yourself to hit. Make your own model to try to find weaknesses in the market.
Dylan: Get as many different sportsbook accounts as you can and study movement to learn timing.
Wes: Listen to everyone, but follow no one.
The Circa Football Preview panel was part of Circa’s Ultimate Contest Weekend. Contest entrants could take part in a number of events, including open bars, parties at Stadium Swim and more. You can see more from Contest Weekend here: